房地产“限购令”的调控机制与政策反思*——基于单中心双环城市模型的分析

近年来中国城市住房价格快速上涨，政府推出房地产“限购令”，以期调整房地产市场，控制城市房价。本文构建了带“限购令”政策约束条件的单中心双环城市住房市场模型，利用数值模拟的方法，从理论上分析房地产“限购令”的政策效果和作用机制。结果显示，限购政策使大中小城市房价均有所下跌，中小城市房价的下降幅度大于大城市的幅度，城市的投机性住房需求越大，限购政策的效果越明显。本文认为“限购令”作为非市场调控手段，仅可作权宜之计而非长久之策，应充分考虑城市的异质性特征，对限购政策进行辨证选择。

THE ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE MECHANISM AND POLICY PERSPECTIVE OF THE HOUSING RESTRICTION POLICY ON CHINAS URBAN HOUSING PRICES——Based on Single Center dual Cycle City Model

In recent years, Chinas urban housing prices rose rapidly The housing restriction policy had been launched in order to adjust the real estate market and control urban housing prices In this paper, we constructed a single center dual cycle city model of urban housing market with constraints of the housing restriction policy to analyze its effect and mechanism by means of numerical simulation The results showed that housing prices of cities with different scale decreased due to the restriction policy The housing prices of small and medium sized cities declined more than those of large cities The larger the speculative housing demand, the more effective of the restriction policy However, as a non market regulation means, the restriction policy could only be adopted temporarily Its necessary to fully consider heterogeneity of cities and dialectically choose restriction policy.