日本战争时期土地价格与银行贷款关系的实证分析

关于战争时期土地价格和银行贷款的关系，主要是以这一时期不动产担保抵押贷款作为两者联系的纽带．在20世纪20年代到30年代期间，日本不动产金融问题越加明显，土地价格下跌对银行贷款产生重要影响．分析显示土地价格变化方向和普通银行及储蓄银行贷款增减变化方向几乎相同．41个道府县的普通银行、储蓄银行贷款增长率与农耕土地价格增长率具有较强的相关性．表明由于战争时期土地价格的下跌，抑制了银行贷款．这一时期，随着借款者拥有的不动产之担保价值下降，使银行资产遭受损失，导致银行防范风险能力下降．

A Positivist Analysis of the Relations between Japan''''s Wartime Land Prices and Bank Loans

Based on the precondition of real estate mortgage guarantee and taking advantage of relevant historic data, the paper is devoted to a positivist study of the relations between Japan's wartime land prices and bank loans. The study consists of, first, the analysis of the relations between land prices and bank loans, second, a comparison of the fluctuations of land prices of various prefectures, counties, cities and townships of Japan and the changing size of loans of ordinary savings banks and, third, an analysis, in light of Japan's Kangyo Bank's bad creditor's rights and losses, of degrees of losses suffered by banks as a result of land price drops, on the basis of which the capacity of banks to fend off risks will be analyzed.