我国股市与经济周期互动关系的谱分析

在成熟资本市场上，股市周期和经济周期存在较强的相关关系。利用谱分析法进行实证研究，发现我国股市和经济周期的波动表现形式较为复杂，在主周期波动过程中又嵌套多个次波动周期，并且股市和经济周期的主波动周期长度也并不一致，仅在次波动周期长度上存在一定的相似性。从长期看，股市周期领先于经济周期16个月；从短期看，股市周期要滞后经济周期约2个月，这与西方成熟市场不完全吻合。造成这一现象有多方面的原因，应通过相应的政策手段加以改善。

Spectrum Anlysis on the Interactions between Stock Market Cycles and Economic Cycles in China

In the western mature capital markets,macro-economic cycle determines the fluctuations in the stock market cycle.The fluctuations in China's stock market cycle and economic cycle are very complicated:the main cycle fluctuations process nested several sub-cycles;The length of the two main fluctuation cycles is not consistent;only in the sub-cycles of fluctuation exist certain similarity.In the long term,there is a certain degree of convergence in China's macro-economic cycle and the stock market cycle,and th...