利润率下降、信贷扩张与房价波动——来自跨国面板数据的经验证据

非金融部门利润率的下降是导致信用扩张的内生性原因,信用游离于实体经济之外、单纯在金融系统内循环是房价上涨和波动的主要推动力。信贷扩张和房价波动相互影响,但信贷扩张对房价的影响远远大于房价上涨对信贷扩张的影响;信贷扩张对房价的放大机制即加速器效应在国际房地产市场普遍存在,加速器效应是房价顺周期性变化的潜在原因,但房价上涨引起信贷进一步扩张的加速器效应不存在。以美日为代表的发达国家的实体经济利润率下降、信用扩张、房价泡沫的累积、直至危机爆发的历史经验值得深思。

Decrease of interest rate,credit expansion and the fluctuation of housing prices——Empirical data from transnational panel data

The decline of profit margin of non-financial sectors is the internal reason of credit expansion.Divorced from the real economy credit purely circulates inside the financial system as the driving force for the increase and fluctuation of housing prices.Credit expansion and housing price fluctuation are interacted,but the former is more influential to the latter than the other way around.The amplification mechanism of housing price by credit expansion,namely the acceleration effect,is universal in the international property market.This effect is the potential cause for the periodic change of housing price.However,the deceleration effect of credit expansion by rising housing price is not yet existent.Such historic experience is worth our reflection as the decrease of profit margin,the credit expansion,the accumulation of housing price bubble and even the breakout of economic crisis in developed countries represented by America and Japan.