人民币汇率波动对区域经济的影响:来自广东的证据

2005年7月汇改以来,人民币持续升值,广东省作为我国对外贸易规模最大的省份,经济增长高度依存于对外贸易。分析汇率波动对广东省进出口的影响就尤为重要。本文运用协整向量自回归的分析方法,对2005-2010年人民币汇率波动与广东省进出口之间的关系进行了实证研究。结果表明,人民币汇率波动对广东省进出口存在显著的影响,ML条件成立;人民币汇率波动对广东省进出口的影响存在J曲线效应。

The Influence of Fluctuation of RMB Exchange Rate on Guangdong Import and Export

RMB has continued to appreciate since the reform of exchange rate in July 2005.As the province with the largest foreign trade scale in China,Guangdong’s economic growth is highly dependent on foreign trade.It is of great importance to analyze the impact of fluctuation of RMB exchange rate on the import and export of Guangdong province.Using the analysis of cointegrating VAR,this paper is an empirical examination of the relationship between Guangdong international trade flow and the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate from 2005 to 2010.The research result shows that RMB exchange rate remarkably influences Guangdong import and export,ML condition holds and the J curve effect exists.