政府支出与政策对城市规模影响的实证分析

城市绝对规模普遍偏低,地区内部城市人口集中度高,区域间集中度差异大是我国目前城市化人口分布的主要特点。政府作为城市化主导力量,对城市规模的分布有着重要影响。文章基于个人效应函数推导出城市人口集中度决定方程,选取2000—2009年我国省级面板数据,实证分析了我国中央、地方政府对城市规模分布的影响。主要结论为:中央和地方政府对城市规模集中分别有抑制和促进作用;地方政府财政支出与城市集中程度存在双向因果关系;日趋放松的人口迁移管制以及相关的政策措施,使得城市首位度提高,城市人口更为集中。因此,改变政府激励,培育市场机制,综合利用产业、贸易、交通等多种渠道,将有利于调节我国不平衡的相对城市规模分布格局,实现合意的城市化发展。

The Effects of Governments Applying on Distribution of City Sizes

At present,China’s urban cities are characterized with a quite low average size,high concentration within regions,big regional differences in concentration,etc..Government is the dominant force for urbanization,so it has a significant impact on the distribution of urban’s scale.This paper derives an urban concentration equation from Individual utility function.Based On the function,we empirically analyze impacts exerted by governments on city-size distribution from 2000 to 2009.The main conclusions are(1) central government constrain concentration while local governments promote it;(2)there is bilateral causality between local governments and cities concentration;(3)loosing regulations make an increase in primary ration,and city size is more concentrated.To achieve a desired urban development,we propose to change governments’ incentives,foster market mechanisms,and utilize kinds of measures including industry,trade,transportation to adjust the imbalance of China’s city-size distribution.