开放经济的稳定性和经济自由化的次序

本文从金融领域和实体经济两个领域分析 ,在不同的制度安排下 ,外部冲击将对一国经济的稳定性产生怎样的影响以及这些影响的传导机制。主要结论有二 :第一 ,与政府干预的经济相比 ,全面自由化的经济具有最强的稳定性 ;第二 ,从保持经济体制转换过程中的稳定性角度看 ,自由化的最优先后次序应当是 :实体经济自由化、国内金融自由化、实行浮动汇率制和资本项目开放。

The Stability of Open Economy and the Sequence of Economic Liberalization

The main purpose of this paper is to provide a meticulous study of the impacts and the conduction mechanism of outside shocks on both real economy and financial economy under different institutional arrangements.Two views are presented in this paper:First,compared with a government intervened economy,a thoroughly liberalized economy has more stable feature in all respects.Second,the optimal path for a government intervened economy transitioning to a liberalized economy is:liberalizing real economy and internal financial markets,applying flexible exchange rate system,and opening capital account.