寻求更有效的财政政策——中国宏观经济分析

宏观财政政策是一种公共物品 ,其有效性的标准是 ,在实现政府利益的同时 ,能够增进社会的福利。面临通货紧缩 ,政府将继续实施以财政政策为主导的扩张性宏观政策 ,在财政支出空间有限的情况下 ,就要选择能够作大投资乘数 ,提高市场效率的措施 ;同时要考虑调整税制结构 ,改变对投资征高税的税制 ,逐步变生产型增值税为收入型增值税和消费型增值税 ,并通过把内资企业税负降至外资企业的水平 ,一方面提高企业的利润预期 ,另一方面 ,消除税负不公 ,提高社会经济效率和减少资本外流 ;在运用国债政策时 ,既要重视国债的发行和使用 ,更要重视国债的交易和流通 ,推进我国金融市场的发育和功能的发挥以及促进公用事业的企业化 ,转换资源配置方式 ,从政府配置转向市场配置 ,从集中配置转向分散配置。总之 ,在体制转轨时期 ,推行一种与市场化改革相结合的财政政策 ,把短期的政策操作和长期的制度调整结合起来 ,实现政策和体制联动。

Exploring a more efficient fiscal policy

The macro fiscal policy is a kind of public goods,which should increase the social welfare while realize the government benefit.Facing deflation,the government will continue on the expanding macro policy dominated by fiscal policy. Within the limited fiscal expenditure,it should choose the measures which enable making the investment multiplier larger and rising the efficiency of the markets.It should also consider the adjustment of taxation structure,the change in the taxation mechanism which imposes a heavy tax on investment,the gradual transformation production typed value added tax into income typed one or consumption typed one.Parallel to lower tax burden on domestic firms to the level on foreign ones,the government may rise the profit expectation,increase the economic efficiency of the society and reduce the capital flow out while eliminate the discrimination of taxation.When dealing with the public debt,the government should pay attention to the transactions and circulation of the bond in order to develop the financial markets in China,make them work efficiently,and transform the public utilities into business firms,as well as issuing and using the bond.Overall,the forms of resources allocation should be transformed from domination by government to domination by market,from centralization to decentralization Generally speaking,during the process of economic transition,a fiscal policy should be combined with the market oriented reform,a short term policy operation should be combined with a long term institutional adjustment.An interaction between the policies and the institutions should be realized.