政府支出规模、要素积累与产业结构效应

传统的产业发展阶段理论不能有效地解释各个国家产业结构的不同变迁模式。本文从政府支出规模、生产要素积累这一新的角度构建理论模型，并利用世界上20个国家的面板数据进行实证检验，其基本结论是，政府支出通过改变全要素生产率和各个产业的资本、劳动这两种生产要素积累，对第三产业的发展产生积极影响，而对第一产业尤其是第二产业产生消极影响。但是，一个国家产业结构体系形成的决定因素是要素的原始积累能力，政府支出只对其起到一定的推动作用。实证检验结论为我国产业结构的独特性提供了有力解释。

The Scale of Government Expenditure,Factor Accumulation and Their Effects on Industrial Structure

Traditional industrial development theory does not effectively explain the evolvement of industrial structure in different countries.This paper builds a new industrial structure model,which includes government expenditure and accumulation of production factors,and gives an empirical test using panel data of 20 countries in the world.Its basic conclusions can be described as the following:governmental expenditure gives a positive effect to the third industry and a negative effect to both the first and second...