区域产业发展视角的农业综合开发影响评估——基于对蔬菜产业的干预效应分析

【目的】通过定量方法准确评估农业综合开发对区域优势产业发展的影响有重要意义。【方法】从农业综合开发对蔬菜产业的项目干预效应入手,以县级为单位,将当年农业综合开发项目扶持内容包括蔬菜产业的县级单位划分为干预组,其他为控制组。采用可以有效解决样品选择偏差的倾向得分匹配方法,通过引入协变量、平衡检验、匹配等步骤,在控制组中找到与干预组成员单位特征相似的成员,构建反事实研究框架。【结果】结果得出,项目干预组比控制组区域的蔬菜播种面积占比高出1~3个百分点,说明农业综合开发项目对蔬菜产业的扶持对蔬菜播种面积的扩大有促进作用,利于蔬菜产业壮大。通过协变量影响力分析得出,地区的蔬菜生产优势是最重要的影响因素,从侧面证明了农业综合开发项目的扶持方向紧跟区域优势的政策宗旨。【结论】可见,通过有方向性的农业综合开发项目实施扶持特定产业对促进区域优势产业发展和实现农业结构优化是有效的。

IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL COMPREHENSIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF REGIONAL INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT——BASED ON THE INTERVENTION EFFECT IN VEGETABLE INDUSTRY

Accurately assessment of the comprehensive agricultural development has important significance to promote the development of regional advantage industry, optimize the layout of comprehensive agricultural development, promote the adjustment of agricultural structure and improve agricultural efficiency. This paper established two treatments, i.e., intervention and control group, and then, analyzed the intervention effect of the agricultural comprehensive development project on vegetable industry using the methods of covariate variables, balance test and regression analysis. The results showed that the sown area of vegetable ratio in the intervention group was 1 to 3 percentage points higher than the control group. It indicated that the agricultural comprehensive development project could promote the expansion of vegetable planting area, and was beneficial to the growth of vegetable industry. Through the analysis of the influence of covariates, the regional vegetable production was the most important influencing factors, which proved the agricultural comprehensive development project to support the regional advantages of the policy purposes. The results showed that it was effective to support the specific industries to promote the development of regional advantage industries and to realize the optimization of agricultural structure through the implementation of the agricultural comprehensive development projects.