| 当前宏观经济形势与2004年的比较与思考 |
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| 引用本文： | 温建东,芦东. 当前宏观经济形势与2004年的比较与思考[J]. 中国货币市场, 2010, 0(3): 8-11 |
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| 作者姓名： | 温建东 芦东 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]剑桥大学 [2]中国外汇交易中心 |
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| 摘 要： | 当前，国内外经济形势错综复杂。文章通过对近期和2004年中国宏观经济形势的比较，分析其中的异同，以厘清未来走势，并为宏观调控提供借鉴。两个时期部有一些相同点：中国经济从低谷走出，乐观情绪升温，房价骤涨，通胀开始抬头，中国跟随世界进人新一轮加息周期，人民币升值压力不断加大。两者不同点是：当前货币增长速度远远快于2004年。贸易顺差更大，信贷和财政状况逊色。未来，预计CPI回升势头更快，央行面临回收流动性的压力更大，贸易摩擦加剧，中美息差可能进一步扩大，人民币的升值压力将加大。
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| 关 键 词： | 宏观经济形势 货币政策周期 CPI |
Analysis and comparison between current macro-economy and the experience in 2004 |
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| Wen Ji,ong,Cambridge Alumni in Management,Ph.D in Economics graduated from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Lu Dong,China Foreign Exchange Trade System. Analysis and comparison between current macro-economy and the experience in 2004[J]. China Money, 2010, 0(3): 8-11 |
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| Authors: | Wen Ji ong Cambridge Alumni in Management Ph.D in Economics graduated from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Lu Dong China Foreign Exchange Trade System |
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| Affiliation: | (Cambridge Alumni in Management, Ph.D in Economics graduated from Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China Foreign Exchange Trade System) |
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| Abstract: | The domestic and foreign economic situations are complicated now.This paper compares China's current macroeconomic situation and the situation in 2004,and probes their similarities and differences in order to find future trends and provide reference for macroeconomic adjustment.There are some similarities in the two periods.China's economy just has got out of depression amid an optimistic mood and booming real estate prices.Signs of inflation have emerged and China has followed the global economy to start a... |
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| Keywords: | macroeconomic situation monetary policy cycle CPI |
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