我国蔬菜出口的增长效应分析

本文运用恒定市场份额模型(CMS),对我国蔬菜出口贸易变动进行阶段分析,以寻找蔬菜出口增长的主要原因。实证结果发现,进口国的需求扩大是我国蔬菜出口持续增长的主要影响因素;商品结构效应对出口的阻碍作用逐渐减小;竞争力效应对1992-1997年期间的蔬菜出口增长具有重要作用,但对其它时期蔬菜出口增长效果不明显。对竞争力效应的近一步分解发现,新鲜蔬菜等传统优势产品竞争力效应下降,而加工蔬菜等产品竞争力效应增长。根据分析,最后提出针对性政策建议。

The Effect Analysis on Chinese Vegetables Exportation Growth

This article uses constant market share model(CMS)to carry on the stage analysis on Chinese vegetables export trade change, and seek the primary causes for which the vegetables exportation grow. The result discovers that the import countries’ demand expansion is the major effect factor of the continual growth of Chinese vegetables exportation; the exportation hindrance function of commodity structure change reduces gradually; the competitive power change is a vital role for the vegetables exportation growth during 1992-1997, but is not obvious in other time. With the detailed analysis of competitive power effect, it finds that competitive power effects of traditional superiority product, such as fresh vegetables, are decreasing, but processing products increasing. According to the analysis, it finally puts forward some pointed proposals.