干旱区绿洲城市经济系统脆弱性评价研究

我国东部沿海地区向中西部地区产业转移明显加快,西部地区矿产资源大规模开发,西北干旱区工业化和城镇化快速发展,绿洲城市作为区域经济发展中心面临着产业结构调整、消费结构升级等问题。从脆弱性的角度,运用综合评价方法,以新疆为例分析评价了干旱区绿洲城市经济系统的脆弱程度,并从城市规模、空间分布等方面分析了其表现特征。结果表明:绿洲城市经济系统脆弱性强度随着城市规模和等级的提高而降低;在空间分布上呈现出东疆绿洲城市经济系统脆弱程度最高,南疆和北疆较低;从敏感性和恢复力与脆弱性的关系来看,经济系统的恢复力对脆弱性的贡献度较高,努力提高绿洲城市经济发展综合水平,加快产业结构升级是提高绿洲城市经济可持续发展有效途径。

Vulnerability Assessment of Economic System of Oasis Cities in Arid Area

In the background of significant acceleration of the industrial transfer to the central and western regions,and extensive exploitation of mineral resources,Xinjiang undergoes rapid development of industrialization and urbanization.As a regional center the oasis cities are facing many problems,such as the industrial structural adjustment and the consumption structure upgrading.From the point view of vulnerability,the overall comment method was used the assessment of the vulnerability of the economic system of oasis cities in Xinjiang,and its performance characteristics were analyzed in terms of city size and spatial distribution.The results showed that the economic system became more vulnerable with the decrease of the scale of oasis cities.Spatially,the East Xinjiang is more vulnerable than the South Xinjiang,which is more vulnerable than North Xinjiang.The results also showed that the main factor that affected the vulnerability of the economic system of oasis cities was the system’s recovery capability.So the effective way to improve the sustainable development of economic system of oasis city was improving the economic development level and accelerating the upgrading of industrial structure.