中国宏观经济运行总量指标互动影响的实证研究

本文利用Granger因果关系检验及建立向量误差修正(VEC)模型,从数量上对中国宏观经济运行总量指标之间的相互影响及关系问题进行实证分析,结果表明物价水平、经济增长和固定资产投资之间存在显着的相互影响。从短期看,固定资产投资与经济增长均对物价水平存在着滞后、正向的推动作用。从长期看,当期投资将在未来期内转化为供给,在反方向上促使物价下滑,因而固定资产投资在长期内对物价水平存在着一个显着的反向影响力。而且广义货币供给量通过固定资产投资与经济总产出的传导作用,对物价水平发生影响。

An Empirical Study of the Interactions among Gross Indices of Current China''''s Macroeconomic Operations

Using Granger's Causality Test and VEC models, this paper explores the dynamic, complex relationships in China's macroeconomic operations by empirically analyzing the interactions among different aggregate indices. The results indicate that price level, economic growth and fixed capital investment significantly interact on each other. In the short run, both fixed capital investment and economic growth have lagged, positive effects on price level. In the long run, fixed capital investment and price level move in a reverse direction, as the current investment is transformed into supply in the future and therefore makes price fall. Moreover, the general monetary supply (M2) also influences price level via fixed capital investment and gross economic output.