太仓市区城镇用地扩展合理规模计量研究

研究目的：探讨规划目标年城镇用地合理规模及其测算方法，为经济发展与耕地保护“两难”问题的解决提供依据。研究方法：采用C-D生产函数及成本效益曲线分析城镇用地合理规模条件，进而通过加权最小二乘法估计城镇用地合理规模测算模型，并结合情景分析法测算不同经济发展条件下规划目标年城镇用地合理规模。研究结果：在考虑生态服务价值时，社会经济中速发展下太仓市区2015 年及2020 年城镇用地合理规模分别为4805.61 hm2 和5495.88 hm2 ，此情景较为合理；而高速经济发展下2015 年及2020 年城镇用地合理规模为5133.36 hm2 和6161.38 hm2 ； 如果不考虑生态服务价值，则在中速发展时2015 年及2020 年城镇用地合理规模为5907.38 hm2 和6756.93 hm2。研究结论：通过经济计量模型及情景分析法等可以确定未来一定社会经济发展情景下不同年份的城镇用地合理规模。

Rational Scale of Urban Land Expanding in Taicang City

Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to explore a method for measuring the reasonable scale of urban land regarding a target period of land use planning to further provide a scientific basis for solving the conflict between socio-economic development and farmland protection. Taking Taicang city as an example, methods of the C-D productive function and the cost-effectiveness curve were used to analyze the condition of reasonable urban land use scale. The urban land scale measurement model was estimated by the method of weighted least squares. The reasonable area scales of urban land in target years were calculated through the method of scenario analysis under different economic development conditions. Result shows that reasonable scale of cantonal urban land in Taicang city is 4805.61 hm2 in 2015 and 5495.88 hm2 in 2020 if the value of ecosystem services is considered under the scenario of moderate development of socio-economy. While under the scenario of rapid economic development and the value of ecosystem services, the reasonable scale of urban land in 2015 is 5133.36 hm2 and 6161.38 hm2 in 2020. However, if the value of ecosystem services is not taken into account, the reasonable scale will be 5907.38 hm2 in 2015 and 6756.93 hm2 in 2020 under the scenario of moderate development of economy. It concludes that reasonable scales of urban land in target years could be calculated by using the methods of Econometrics and Scenario Analysis.