中国煤炭需求增长极限及其调控

本文利用面板数据的相关理论和模型建立起煤炭需求与经济发展的库兹涅茨曲线模型，并将工业化和城市化两个重要因素引入模型中，以对中国工业化和城市化进程中的煤炭库兹涅茨曲线进行研究。回归结果表明，中国工业化、城市化进程推动了煤炭需求快速增长，其中工业化对中国煤炭需求的作用远大于城市化，意味着中国工业化水平的加快是引起煤炭消费增长的主要原因，城市化水平则次之。煤炭消费量随着人均GDP的增长，先增加后减少，说明我国煤炭需求与经济增长之间的库兹涅茨特征明显，能源库兹涅茨的“倒U型”曲线假说在中国成立。模型显示，煤炭需求下降的理论拐点在2040年左右。考虑到各项制约因素的作用，中国煤炭年需求量和产量实际上已经达到增长的极限，因此，应采取各种有效的调控措施，严格控制煤炭需求量的上升，促使库兹涅茨曲线拐点提前到来。

ON THE GROWTH LIMITS TO CHINA'S COAL DEMAND AND ITS CONTROL

This paper used panel data to establish a Kuznets model between coal demand and economic growth with two factors of industrialization and urbanizationThe regression results showed that the industrialization and urbanization of China resulted in the fast growth of coal demand and the role of industrialization was greater than that of urbanizationThe process of industrialization was the main reason for the growth of coal consumptionMoreover，per capita GDP growth brought an initial phase of coal consumption growth followed by a subsequent phase of coal consumption declineIt fitted a characteristic of Kuznets between coal demand and economics growth，which would be an inverted U shaped curve in ChinaThe model also showed the turning point of coal demand would appear in 2040However，both coal demand and production had their growth limitsThe government should adopt some effective measures to control the growth of coal demand，promote the turning point to come ahead of time