美联储停止缩表的原因、影响及中国对策

近期美联储停止缩表引起广泛关注。美联储停止缩表主要有以下几个原因：一是货币需求大幅上升，二是美联储控制短期利率的能力出现下降，三是美国经济前景存在不确定性。此外，美联储停止缩表还有助于继续发挥财政作用、改善货币政策传导效率、降低污名效应、降低私人部门安全资产的供应以及降低对美联储信用风险和银行清算风险。美联储停止缩表对美国和中国都会产生十分广泛的影响。对美国的影响主要有：资产价格将获得支撑、投资可能出现过热、通胀可能出现阶段性上升、金融风险可能加大、美联储独立性可能受到影响、可能加剧收益率曲线倒挂；对中国的影响主要有：人民币汇率压力有望缓解、资产价格可能上升、短期资本流入可能增多。因此，中国货币政策应保持定力，密切关注国际资本流动趋势的变化，防范资产价格暴涨风险，同时，应加强人民币汇率风险管理。

The Reasons, Impacts and China's Countermeasures of the Federal Reserve Stopping Shrinking the Balance Sheet

Recently, the Fed stops shrinking the balance sheet and has caused widespread concern. The research in this paper shows that the Fed has chosen to stop shrinking the balance sheet mainly for the following reasons: first, the demand for money has risen sharply; second, the ability of the Fed to control short-term interest rates has declined; and third, the outlook for the US economy is uncertain. In addition, the Fed''s cessation of contraction will help to continue to play its fiscal role, improve monetary policy transmission efficiency, reduce stigma effects, reduce the supply of safe assets in the private sector, and reduce the risk of credit risk and bank liquidation for the Fed. The Fed''s cessation of contraction has a very broad impact on the United States and China. The impact on the United States mainly includes the following six aspects: first, asset prices will be supported; second, investment may be overheated; third, inflation may increase in stages; fourth, financial risks may increase; fifth, the independence of the Fed may be affected; and sixth, the yield curve inverted may be exacerbated. The impact on China mainly has the following three aspects: first, the pressure on the RMB exchange rate is expected to ease; second, asset prices may rise; and third, short-term capital inflows may increase. China''s monetary policy should keep steady, pay close attention to changes in international capital flows, prevent the risk of asset price inflation, and strengthen the risk management of the RMB exchange rate.