空间溢出视角下新型城镇化进程对水资源压力的影响

利用我国31个省(自治区、直辖市)2004—2019年的面板数据，从人口、经济、空间、社会、生态5个方面综合测度我国新型城镇化发展指数，并结合水足迹和供需平衡思想测算各地区水资源压力指数；运用空间计量模型，探究了新型城镇化发展对水资源压力的空间溢出影响。研究结果表明：在普通面板回归下，我国新型城镇化发展水平与水资源压力正相关，进一步地加入空间关联因素后，新型城镇化发展对水资源压力的正向作用增强；新型城镇化发展水平的提高会给邻近省份带来明显的正向溢出作用；基于空间溢出视角较好地刻画了各省份内部、省份之间发展需要和资源压力的矛盾，可为实现新型城镇化的高质量发展提供有益参考。

Impact of new urbanization process on water resources pressure from the perspective of spatial spillover

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) from 2004 to 2019, the new urbanization development index was comprehensively measured from population, economy, space, society and ecology, and the water resource pressure index of each region was calculated by combining the water footprint and supply-demand balance. The spatial econometric model is used to explore the impact of new urbanization development on the spatial spillover of water resources pressure. The results showed that under the normal panel regression, the development level of new urbanization in China was positively correlated with water resources pressure, and the positive effect of new urbanization on water resources pressure was strengthened after further adding the spatial correlation factors. The improvement of new urbanization development level will bring obvious positive spillover effect to neighboring provinces. Based on the perspective of space spillover, the contradictions between development needs and resource pressure within and among provinces are well depicted, which can provide useful reference for the realization of high-quality development of new urbanization.