非线性增长与经济增长动力转换

采用时变马尔科夫区制转换模型,分析了不同投入要素在不同经济增长阶段对经济增长贡献的差异,以及影响经济在不同区制之间跃迁的关键因素。研究发现:在三类经济增速区间内,人力资本投入对经济增长的拉动效应最强,在推动经济从中速增长向高速增长转移的过程中发挥重要作用;帮助经济跨越"中等收入陷阱"的关键在于提高物质资本和人力资本投资的匹配度,使物质资本和人力资本的流动与产业集聚和城市化发展一致、与技术创新能力提升配合;渐进式转型有利于平滑增长路径,降低向高收入均衡收敛的临界值。

Non-linear Growth and Transition of Force to Economic Growth

Using the time-varying Markov regime switching model ,this paper analyzes the contribution of different factors to economic growth at different stages and the difference in these contributions ,and the key factors affecting the transition between different economic regimes .The result shows as follows :the promoting effect of human capital input on economy growth is the strongest ,and human capital investment plays a important role in the process of promoting economics to transfer from moderate speed growth to high speed growth ;the key to stride over the middle income trap is to improve the matching degree of material capital and human capital investment ,and the flow of material capital and hu-man capital should be consistent with the development of industry upgrading and urbanization ,and should match with the enhancement of tech-nological innovation capability ;the incremental reform should be carried out gradually to decrease the critical value of high income equilibrium convergence .