我国经常账户失衡的内外冲击因素——基于BQ分解的实证研究

为了研究自1990年代初期以来我国经常账户出现持续顺差的内外部原因,本文利用Blanchard和Quah提出的对冲击进行长期约束的冲击分解方法,分析了内部冲击和外部冲击对我国经常账户失衡的冲击-传导机制。分析结论表明:我国经常账户失衡主要是由我国内部冲击因素导致的,并且,在样本期内,我国经常账户的波动也可以由其内部冲击分量来模拟。依据这些结论,本文提出了应对我国经常账户失衡的政策建议。

Internal and External Factors of China's Current Account Imbalance:An Empirical Study Based On BQ Decomposition

In order to study the internal and external reasons of the incessant current account surplus in China since the early 1990's,this paper follows Blanchard & Quah's way to learn the mechanism of shocks to China's current account imbalance.We get the conclusion that internal shocks should be mainly responsible for the imbalance,and what's more,it can simulate the current account fluctuation during the sample time.Based on these findings,the paper also puts forward some policy recommendations accordingly.