| 北京市商品房市场分析与调控对策 |
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| 引用本文： | 魏淑甜,廖先玲.北京市商品房市场分析与调控对策[J].北京市经济管理干部学院学报,2006,21(3):10-14. |
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| 作者姓名： | 魏淑甜 廖先玲 |
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| 作者单位： | 山东科技大学,青岛,266510 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文分析了北京市1993———2005年各类统计数据,基于系统动力学理论和方法,构建了北京市商品房市场价格的系统动力学模型,并利用VENPLE软件对其商品房市场进行了计算机仿真。根据仿真输出图,北京市今后数年的商品房价格仍然偏高,市场的需求供给比小于1,预测出后10年北京市商品房市场价格将继续保持缓慢上涨的趋势。在此基础上,提出了控制商品房价格,刺激有效需求和抑制过热供给的对策建议。
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| 关 键 词： | 北京市商品房市场 系统动力学模型 调控对策 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-7222(2006)03-0010-05 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006年6月13日 |
Market Analysis and Controlling Countermeasures of Beijing Commercial Housing Market |
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| WEI Shu-tian,LIAO Xian-ling.Market Analysis and Controlling Countermeasures of Beijing Commercial Housing Market[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Economic Management,2006,21(3):10-14. |
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| Authors: | WEI Shu-tian LIAO Xian-ling |
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| Abstract: | On the basis of analyzing various types of statistical data from 1993 to 2005,systematic dynamics model of Beijing commercial housing market price is established and its commercial housing market is simulated with the VENPLE software based on the systematic dynamics theories and techniques.According to simulated output graphs of this model,Beijing commercial housing price will be on the high side in the following years,and the ratio of demand and supply will be less than 1,and Beijing commercial housing price is forecasted to be kept rising slowly in the next 10 years.Some suggestions and countermeasures are put forward to control the high price,stimulate effective demand and suppress overheated supply. |
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| Keywords: | Beijing commercial housing market systematic dynamics model controlling countermeasures |
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