The Glass Ceiling and Relative Arrest Rates of Blacks Compared to Whites

A simple theoretical model is presented in which higher relative arrest rates for blacks compared to whites lead to higher relative absenteeism (including tardiness) and ultimately a lower likelihood of placement in occupations where absenteeism is more costly, such as supervisory positions. Though the data do not allow for a direct test of the model, partial correlations provide some suggestive evidence. Controlling for city fixed effects and using an occupation prestige index to proxy for occupations with more costly absenteeism, higher relative arrest rates for blacks compared to whites are associated with relatively worse occupation placement compared to whites. The model and suggestive evidence make a case for further research into the spillover effect of criminal justice outcomes and for consideration of spillover effects in the costs and benefits of enforcement mechanisms which disproportionately affect blacks.