社会预测体制的生成与演变

预测活动是现代人类活动的基础,科学地预见未来与人类的命运休戚相关。该文在梳理预测体制形成的历史流变的基础上,着重探讨了现代预测体制的确立及其在领导体制中的重要地位,特别是现代预测体制中的国家预测系统已成为国家安全的重要依托之一。正是由于各国建立了日趋完善的预测体制,现代国际政治关系才得以形成并稳定下来。现代预测体制正朝着控制整个社会体制的方向发展。现代社会中所有机构的决策却越来越依赖于预测;社会体制的改革是预测体制行为新范式的灵魂。

The Formation and Evolution on the System of Prediction

The activity of prediction,which scientifically discovers the close relationship between the future and human destiny, is the foundation of the modern human activity.In the following article ,on the basis of forming development on the system of prediction through history, the writer probes into the forming of modern system of prediction,which plays an important role in leadership structure, and into the nation prediction system, which leads to the national security in some way. Just because countries set up the perfect prediction system day by day, the modern international political relation have been formed and settled down.The modern system of prediction is moving towards the development of social system. All decisions of organizations in modern society depend on the prediction system day by day. The reform of social system is the cord of new style for behavior of the system of prediction.