外贸顺差、贸易筛选与就业关系研究——基于月度数据的再检验

本文利用2001-2009年的对外贸易月度数据,考察了中国出口与外贸顺差对就业水平的影响。研究表明,在暂时不考虑进口的情况下,出口规模的扩大对就业依然产生正向冲击;但是考虑进口后,外贸顺差的就业效应却呈现出先促进后抑制的效应。因此,传统的菲利普斯曲线机制认为的外贸顺差促进就业的观点可能需要重新修正,而Helpman等提出的"贸易筛选"机制在中国当前的外贸顺差规模下,将在劳动力市场上发挥主要作用。鉴于此,中国应在进一步提高出口规模和质量的同时,重视进口对经济发展的促进作用,将外贸顺差规模控制在合理范围。

Researches on the Relationship between Trade Surplus,Trade Screen and Employment:Reexamination Based on the Monthly Data

Employment impact of export and trade surplus is studied in this paper using monthly data of foreign trade from 2001 to 2009.The increase of export has direct shock to employment when taking no account of import temporarily.But the employment effect of surplus is increased then decreased when taking account of import.The traditional view that trade surplus add to the employment in the Phillips mechanism maybe need revise.The "screening mechanism" proposed by Helpman play a major role in the labor market at the current scale of trade scale in china.Thus the state should play attention to the role of import to economic development in promoting at the same time improving export scale further.The scale of foreign trade is controlled in reasonable range.