我国财政支出、银行信贷的经济效应

利用1985—2008年中国省级面板数据，对财政支出、银行信贷与人均收入之间的关系进行检验，并加入了财政支出与银行信贷的交叉项，以考察政府主导的外生金融体系对经济的影响。实证结果表明：东、中部地区财政支出有效地促进了经济的增长，且东部财政支出对经济增长的促进作用要高于中部地区，而西部地区的财政支出却抑制了经济的增长；东部地区银行信贷对经济增长产生了显著的正向作用，而中、西部地区的银行信贷资金对经济增长的作用不显著；政府主导的外生金融体系有效促进了我国经济增长，但在中、西部地区的作用不显著。

The Economic Effect of Fiscal Expenditure and Bank Credit of China

By using the provincial panel data of China from 1985 to 2008, this paper tests the relationship among fiscal expenditure, bank credit and per capita income and adds the cross term of fiscal expenditure and bank credit to examine the effect of exogenous financial system led by government on economy. The empirical conclusions indicate that the fiscal expenditure in east and middle part of China effectively boosts economic growth while the effect of fiscal expenditure in east part of China is higher than that of middle area, however, the fiscal expenditure in west part of China hampers economic growth, that bank credit in east part of China produces significantly positive effect on economic growth but bank credit capital in middle and west part of China has unremarkable effect on economic growth and that the exogenous financial system led by governments effectively promotes the economic growth of China but its effect in middle and west part of China is not significant.