中国乙烯行业回顾、展望与思考

2011年,我国乙烯行业供需两旺,产能、产量双破1500万吨；原料多元化和装置大型化程度进一步提升,多元化的市场主体格局继续发展；装置国产化不断取得新突破,一批在建大乙烯项目积极推进.预计2012年我国乙烯产能和产量将双超1700万吨.“十二五”期间,我国乙烯产业仍将处于快速发展期,2015年我国乙烯总产能将达到2500万～2700万吨；乙烯产业将继续向大型化、一体化、基地化、产业集群化、经营主体多元化方向发展,布局将进一步优化,下游产品结构将继续向高端领域进军；乙烯原料进一步向轻质化、多样化发展,而且进口量增加,节能环保安全压力加大,装置的国产化水平和技术水平进一步提高；同时,来自中东、美国和周边国家和地区乙烯系产品的竞争压力和挑战将加大.为此,我国乙烯产业与石化产业必须转变增长方式,大力推进科技进步,在做大的同时着力做强,提高国际竞争力.

Review and outlook for China’s ethylene industry

In 2011,both supply and demand in China’s ethylene industry were booming,capacity and production both exceeded 15 million tons;raw materials were further diversified,more and more plants were upsized,market entities were increasingly diverse;new breakthroughs in increasing the percentage of domestically produced plants were achieved one after another,and some ethylene projects under construction were actively promoted.In 2012,China’s capacity and production of ethylene are expected to exceed 17 million tons.During the Twelfth Five-Year Plan,China’s ethylene industry will sustain rapid growth.In 2015,China’s ethylene capacity will total 25 million ～27 million tons/year;the ethylene industry will continue developing towards upsizing,integrating,forming bases and industrial clusters,diversifying in business entities,and industrial distribution will be further optimized,while the downstream product mix will incorporate more high-end products;raw materials for ethylene will be lighter and have more variety,their imports will increase,energy conservation,environmental protection and safety pressures will build up,while more equipment will be domestically manufactured and their technological level will be further improved;at the same time,ethylene products from the Middle East,the United States and their surrounding countries and regions will pose greater competition pressures and challenges.Accordingly,China’s ethylene industry and petrochemical industry must be strengthened while growing by changing its growth pattern and facilitating technological progress to improve its international competitive edge.