经济增长与工业污染：基于中国城市面板数据的实证研究

运用２００３—２００９年中国地级及以上城市面板数据，对经济增长与工业废水排放量、工业二氧化硫排放量及工业烟尘排放量的三类工业污染指标之间的关系进行实证检验。研究发现，就全国范围而言，环境污染与经济增长之间基本符合环境库兹涅茨倒Ｕ型曲线关系。大部分城市的工业废水排放量和工业二氧化硫排放量随着人均ＧＤＰ的增长而不断增加。绝大多数城市的人均ＧＤＰ水平已超过工业烟尘排放量与经济增长的倒Ｕ型曲线的转折点临界值水平，工业烟尘排放量随人均ＧＤＰ的增长而相应减少。当前经济发展仍面临较大的环境压力，要加快经济增长方式的转变，实现经济增长与环境质量的良性循环。

Economic Growth and Industrial Pollution: An Empirical Study of Chinese Urban Panel Data

On the basis of 2003—2009 panel data for cities at prefecture level or above in China,this paper makes an empirical test of the relationship between economic growth and three industrial pollution indicators: industrial waste water discharged,industrial sulfur dioxide emissions and industrial soot emissions.The results confirm an inverted-U environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and industrial pollution at national level.For most cities,industrial waste water discharged and sulfur dioxide emissions increase as GDP per capita grows.In the vast majority of cases,GDP per capita has exceeded the critical value at the turning point on the inverted-U curve between industrial soot emissions and economic growth,with falling industrial soot emissions as GDP per capita rises.With severe environmental pressure,we should accelerate the transformation of the pattern of economic growth and promote a benign circle between economic growth and environmental quality.