| 基于时间序列视角的2020年中国能源需求预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 张林,张传平.基于时间序列视角的2020年中国能源需求预测[J].价值工程,2011,30(15):22-23. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张林 张传平 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中石化胜利石油管理局胜大电力设备厂,东营,257000
2. 中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,东营,267061 |
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| 摘 要： | 能源与经济社会发展构成巢结构关系.能源预测是能源规划的基础.时间序列分析技术,基于其时原始数据相对简单的要求,实现对数据产生机制的科学理解和描述,实现未来值预报,是常用预测方法.本文利用时间序列分析技术,预测得到中国2020年能源需求总量为449074.91万吨标准煤.
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| 关 键 词： | 时间序列分析 能源预测 标准煤 |
China's Energy Demand Prediction in 2020 Based on the Visual Angle of Time Series Analysis |
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| Zhang Lin,Zhang Chuanping.China's Energy Demand Prediction in 2020 Based on the Visual Angle of Time Series Analysis[J].Value Engineering,2011,30(15):22-23. |
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| Authors: | Zhang Lin Zhang Chuanping |
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| Institution: | ① Zhang Lin;② Zhang Chuanping(①Shengda Electric Equipment Factory of Shengli Oil Admin Bureau,Sinopec,Dongying 257000,China; ②Economic & Management School,China University of Petroleum,Dongying 267061,China) |
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| Abstract: | Energy and the development of economic society constitute the nested structure.Energy planning is based on its prediction.Time series analysis,based on its relatively simple requirements on the original data,scientifically understanding,describing the data generation mechanism and predicting the future value,is a common prediction method.The total energy demand of China in 2020 is predicted about 449074.91 ten thousand standardized coal in this paper using time series analysis. |
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| Keywords: | time series analysis energy prediction standardized coal |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ |
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