城镇化进程中水资源消耗的影响因素研究

在"多项连乘和加总"及向量扩展形式的LMDI模型基础上,构建城镇化进程中人口-居民消费-用水强度的分解框架,分析2003—2016年间水资源消耗的影响因素。研究表明:人口规模扩大和人口城镇化对用水量增长均为正向促进作用,且前者驱动力强于后者;居民消费水平提升是拉动用水量增长的主导因素,而居民消费结构优化升级和居民消费率上升均有效抑制了水资源的消耗,且前者更为显著;用水量的下降主要得益于产业技术进步,生活用水量的增长主要源于生活强度效应。进一步指出未来应合理控制我国人口规模和人口流动,加速居民消费结构的优化升级,注重强化产业技术创新,深挖农业节水潜力,提升居民消费率以实现既定经济规模下的相对节水。

Factorsinfluencing water consumption in the process of urbanization

Based on the LMDI method of aggregate of the sum of polynomial multiplication and vector form, the decomposition framework of population-residential consumption-water intensity in the process of urbanization is established, and the factors influencing the water consumption from 2003 to 2016 are analyzed. The research shows that expansion and urbanization of population positively promote the growth of water consumption, and the effect of the former is stronger than that of the latter. The improvement of residents'' consumption level is the absolute leading factor driving the growth of water consumption. The optimization and upgrading of residential consumption structure and the increase of residential consumption rate can effectively suppress the consumption of water resources, and the effect of the former is more significant. The decline in water consumption is mainly due to the advancement of industrial technology. The growth of households'' water consumption mainly comes from the effect of water intensity of life. It is further pointed out that we should reasonably control the size and movement of population, accelerate the optimization and upgrading of residents'' consumption structure, focus on strengthening the innovation of industrial technology, deepen the potential of agricultural water-saving efficiency, and enhance residential consumption rate to achieve relative water saving under the given economic scale.