Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends, and Endogenous Growth |
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Authors: | Raouf BoucekkineDavid de la Croix Omar Licandro |
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Institution: | a IRES, Université catholique de Louvain, Place Montesquieu 3, B-1348, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgiumf1boucekkine@ires.ucl.ac.bef1b National Fund for Scientific Research and IRES, Université catholique de Louvain, Place Montesquieu 3, B-1348, Louvain-la Neuve, Belgiumf2delacroix@ires.ucl.ac.bef2c FEDEA and European University Institute, Badia Fiesolana, via dei Roccettini 9, 50016, San Domenico di Fiesole, Italy |
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Abstract: | We study how economic growth is affected by demographics in an OLG model with a realistic survival law. Individuals optimally chose the dates at which they leave school to work and at which they retire. Endogenous growth arises thanks to the accumulation of generation-specific human capital. Favorable shifts in the survival probabilities induce longer schooling and later retirement but have an ambiguous effect on per-capita growth. The long-term relationship between fertility and per-capita growth is hump-shaped. Increases in longevity can be responsible for a switch from a no-growth regime to a sustained growth regime and for a positive relationship between fertility and growth to vanish. Solving numerically the equilibrium, demographic changes can have important medium-term effects even if long-term changes are very small. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: 041, I20, J10. |
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Keywords: | human capital longevity fertility growth schooling retirement |
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