技术进步与畅通国内大循环:产业结构升级视角

构建“双循环”新发展格局的关键在于畅通国内大循环,生产端的升级是畅通国内大循环的基础与保障。本文在构建平衡增长路径下多部门经济理论模型的基础上,利用中国省级层面的三次产业数据,实证考察技术进步对以就业结构变动为表征的产业升级的影响,从生产端为畅通国内大循环提供理论参考与经验支持。研究发现,农业技术进步与农业和工业就业比值呈负相关关系,工业技术进步与农业和工业就业比值、服务业和工业就业比值同时呈正相关关系,服务业技术进步则与工业和服务业就业比值呈负相关关系。这意味着,农业、工业和服务业部门的技术进步差异会引致部门之间劳动力的流动,从而推动以就业结构变动为表征的产业结构升级。相对价格机制是技术进步促进产业结构升级的重要机制,即技术进步可以通过降低部门产品的相对价格,推动以就业结构改变为表征的产业结构升级。本文基于中国数据,验证了技术进步推动产业结构升级的事实。因此,在构建“双循环”新发展格局的过程中,要以创新为动力,着力推动科技创新,以技术进步推动劳动力在三次产业间的合理流动,从而实现资源在三次产业间的有效配置,从生产端为畅通国内大循环提供基础保障。

Technological Progress and the Patency of Domestic Circulation:The Perspective of Industrial Structure Upgrading

The key to constructing the new development pattern of“dual circulation”lies in the patency of domestic circulation.The upgrading of production-end is the foundation to guarantee the unimpeded domestic circulation.On the basis of constructing the theoretical model of multi-sectoral economy under the balanced growth path,this paper examines the impact of technological progress on industrial upgrading,which is indicated by changes in employment structure,to provide theoretical reference for the patency of domestic circulation from the production-end.The study found that,an inverse relationship between agricultural technological progress and the ratio of agricultural and industrial employment.Industrial technological progress is positively related to the ratio of agricultural and industrial employment and the ratio of service and industrial employment.The technological progress of service industry is inversely correlated to the employment ratio of industry and service industry.The differences in technological progress in the agriculture,industrial and service sectors lead to changes in the employment structure between sectors,thereby contributing to the upgrading of industrial structures.Furthermore,the mechanism test show that the relative price is a core for technological progress to promote the upgrading of industrial structure,that is,technological progress upgrades industrial structure represented by the change of employment structure through reducing the relative prices of sector products.This paper verifi es the fact that in the process of constructing a new development pattern of“dual circulation”,government departments should stimulate scientific and technological innovation in order to promote the rational fl ow of labor among the three industries,so as to realize the effective allocation of resources between the three industries,and provide guarantee unimpeded domestic circulation from the production-end.