Forecasting the electric transformation in transportation: the role of battery technology performance

In an effort to encourage consumers to purchase electric vehicles (EVs), the government has been funding battery research to solve some of these problems. This paper presents a study using technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA) to forecast future battery performance characteristics. The results were compared against the performance goals established by the US Department of Energy (DOE). We find that the foreseen progress of EV battery performance will be insufficient to meet the DOE projected goals for the range that EVs can travel before running out of power. Therefore, a new battery technology must be developed because the incremental improvements in current battery technologies leave EVs considerably short of the DOE performance specification for longer trip ranges.