Challenges for land system science |
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| Authors: | Mark DA Rounsevell Bas Pedroli Karl-Heinz Erb Marc Gramberger Anne Gravsholt Busck Helmut Haberl Søren Kristensen Tobias Kuemmerle Sandra Lavorel Marcus Lindner Hermann Lotze-Campen Marc J Metzger David Murray-Rust Alexander Popp Marta Pérez-Soba Anette Reenberg Angheluta Vadineanu Peter H Verburg Bernhard Wolfslehner |
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| Institution: | 1. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Drummond Street, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK;2. Alterra, Wageningen UR, P.O. Box 47, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands;3. Institute of Social Ecology Vienna (SEC), Alpen-Adria Universitaet Klagenfurt, Wien, Graz, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria;4. Prospex bvba, Vlugestal 6, B-3140 Keerbergen, Belgium;5. Department of Geography and Geology, University of Copenhagen, Oster Voldgade 10, 1350 Copenhagen, Denmark;6. Department of Geography, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany;7. Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine, CNRS UMR 5553, Université Joseph Fourier, BP 53, 38041 Grenoble Cedex 9, France;8. European Forest Institute, Torikatu 34, 80100 Joensuu, Finland;9. European Forest Institute, Regional Office for Central Eastern Europe, c/o University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna, 1180 Vienna, Austria;10. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PO Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany;11. Department of Systems Ecology and Sustainability, University of Bucharest, Spl. Independentei 91-95, Bucharest, Romania;12. Institute for Environmental Sciences, VU University Amsterdam. De Boelelaan 1087, 1081HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;1. Environmental Geography Group, IVM Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, de Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;2. School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences, PANGEA Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Australia;3. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;1. School of Geographical Sciences & Urban Planning, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-4501, United States;2. School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-4501, United States;1. Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, University of Copenhagen, Rolighedsvej 23, 1958 Frederiksberg C, Denmark;2. Chair of Societal Transition and Agriculture, University of Hohenheim, Schloss Museumsflügel Ost, 70593 Stuttgart, Germany;3. Department of Geography and Geology, University of Turku, 20014 Turku, Finland;4. Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland;5. Department of Geography, University of the Aegean, University Hill, Mytilene 81100, Greece;6. Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany;7. Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1087, 1081 HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands;1. Institute of Social Ecology, Vienna, Alpen-Adria Universität, Schottenfeldgasse 29, 1070 Vienna, Austria;2. Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany;3. Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Transition Economies (IAMO), Theodor-Lieser Str. 2, Halle (Saale), 06120, Germany |
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| Abstract: | While considerable progress has been made in understanding land use change, land system science continues to face a number of grand challenges. This paper discusses these challenges with a focus on empirical land system studies, land system modelling and the analysis of future visions of land system change. Contemporary landscapes are contingent outcomes of past and present patterns, processes and decisions. Thus, empirical analysis of past and present land-use change has an important role in providing insights into the socio-economic and ecological processes that shape land use transitions. This is especially important with respect to gradual versus rapid land system dynamics and in understanding changes in land use intensity. Combining the strengths of empirical analysis with multi-scale modelling will lead to new insights into the processes driving land system change. New modelling methods that combine complex systems thinking at a local level with macro-level economic analysis of the land system would reconcile the multi-scale dynamics currently encapsulated in bottom-up and top-down modelling approaches. Developments in land use futures analysis could focus on integrating explorative scenarios that reflect possible outcomes with normative visions that identify desired outcomes. Such an approach would benefit from the broad and in-depth involvement of stakeholders in order to link scientific findings to political and societal decision-making culminating in a set of key choices and consequences. Land system models have an important role in supporting future land use policy, but model outputs require scientific interpretation rather than being presented as predictions. The future of land system science is strongly dependent on the research community's capacity to bring together the elements of research discussed in the paper, via empirical data collection and analysis of observed processes, computer simulation across scale levels and futures analysis of alternative, normative visions through stakeholder engagement. |
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