开放条件下中国大豆种子产业安全状况评估

转基因大豆的大量进口与外资在豆油压榨行业的垄断导致国产大豆种植面积与产量不断萎缩,进而对我国大豆种子产业的安全造成影响。文章在对大豆种业安全进行界定的基础上构建了产业安全评估体系,并用2002~2013年的指标数值进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国大豆种业2006年已陷入危机,之后安全状况不断恶化,2010~2013年已出现完全危机,大豆种企纷纷停止制种,经营大豆种子的公司大面积亏损、倒闭。造成这一状况的原因是国内大豆产业沦陷、种植大豆比较收益低、大豆属性定位不清、政策保护不足与大豆种子商品化率低。为保存国内大豆产业复苏、繁荣的基础,建议:(1)加大对大豆育种、制种、良种推广的政策扶持;(2)制定大豆最低种植面积红线;(3)提高大豆种子的商品化率、加快良种良法的大面积推广。

ASSESSMENT OF SOYBEAN SEED INDUSTRY SECURITY SITUATION UNDER OPENING CONDITIONS

The excessive import of transgenic soybeans and the monopolization of foreign capital in soybean crush-ing industry have led to continuous shrink of the domestic soybean acreage and production, and further impact do-mestic soybean seed industry. This paper established an evaluation system of soybean seed industry safety, and then carried out an empirical analysis with the actual data of 2002~2013 . The results showed that soybean seed industry in China was in crisis since 2006, and the security situation was deteriorating. The severe crisis come up from 2010 to 2013. A lot of soybean seed enterprises stopped breeding and faced with bankruptcy. The reasons for this situa-tion were the declining soybean industry, the low profits of planting soybean,the lack of protection by government policy, and the low commercialization rate of soybean seed. Therefore,it proposed some suggestions to promote the development of soybean industry, i. e. , increasing support of policies of soybean breeding, seed production and seed marketing, making a red line of the soybean growing area, accelerating the promotion of fine seeds and laws into large areas, and raising the ratio of the commercialization of soybean seed.