基于等风险图和模糊综合评价法的投标报价风险分析

建筑企业在投标时对工程实际资料掌握的广度和深度非常有限，据此得出的投标报价是一个期望价格。实际施工时可能出现的种种不确定性因素（如恶劣的天气等）会导致工程实际造价高于投标报价，即投标存在风险。针对建筑企业在投标报价中所面临的各种风险因素，以概率估计和模糊数学分析理论相结合，研究这些风险发生的概率以及对项目收益产生的影响，以风险量值来衡量投标报价的风险值，为建筑企业投标提供新的决策依据。

Bidding risk analysis based on equal risk curve and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

Construction enterprises know little about actual project information from different views when bidding. So the bid price is an expectation value. All kinds of uncertainties occurring in the construction such as bad weather will lead the price may be higher than bidding one, which results in bid risk. Focusing on the various risk factors which construction enterprises encounter when bidding, this paper devoted to the risk probability and its influence on the project benefit combing probability estimation and fuzzy mathematics theory. The risk measure was used to weigh the risk value of bid to provide the decision base for the construction enterprises.