模糊Bayes方法在聚驱抽油机井可靠性分析中的应用

根据Bayes理论，对现场使用聚驱抽油机井管杆偏磨的失效数据进行模糊可靠性统计分析。首先进行各态失效数据异常点的Bayes诊断，对各态寿命分布参数进行Bayes估计；然后运用模糊综合评判方法确定各态失效寿命概率模型，最后得到管杆偏磨失效主要可靠性指标，为进行可靠性分析提供定量依据。

Application of Fuzzy Bayes Method to the Reliability Analysis of Polymer Drive Pump Wells

Aecording to the Bayes method, fuzzy reliability statistical analysis of the database of side-abrasion failure of rod string for polymer driver pump wells is earned on. Unusual data point is diagnosed and life distributing parameter of eaeh failure mode is estimated by Bayes method. Then the life probability model of each failure mode is defined by the general tuzzy judgment method. At last, the main reliability indexes of side-abrasion failare of rod string is caleulated to provide quantitative basis for reliability analvsis of polymer driver pump wells.