Is the variability of world wheat prices increasing? |
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Authors: | David Blandford Nancy E Schwartz |
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Institution: | 1. Administrator at the Markets, Directorate for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2 rue André Pascal, 75775, Paris, France;2. Associate Professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, NY, USA;3. Research Support Specialist in the Department of Agricultural Economics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, NY, USA |
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Abstract: | Estimates are derived of the potential variability of world wheat prices and the sources of this variability. These indicate a sizable increase in the probability of large short-run fluctuations in price. The bulk of this variability is due to fluctuations in the domestic grain production of developing and centrally-planned economies. However, most market participants are unresponsive to short-run changes in world price, and transmit a substantial amount of domestic variability to the world market. The key factor in world price stability is the short-run responsiveness of wheat exports from the USA. It is likely that both the physical and policy factors that have contributed to increased variability will persist. |
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Keywords: | International trade Wheat prices Food policy |
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