Compounding food and income insecurity in Yemen: Challenges from climate change |
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| Institution: | 1. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), 2033 K St. NW, Washington, DC 20006-1002, USA;2. Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), Hindenburgufer 66, D-24105 Kiel, Germany;1. DXA Unit, St Vincent''s University Hospital, Dublin, Ireland;2. School of Medicine and Medical Sciences, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland;1. Epicentre, Paris, France;2. London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK;3. World Health Organization, Sana''a, Yemen;4. Health Authorities, Yemen;5. Central Public Health Laboratory, Sana''a, Yemen;6. World Health Organization, Cairo, Egypt;7. Médecins Sans Frontières, Dubai, United Arab Emirates;8. Médecins Sans Frontières, Barcelona, Spain;9. Médecins Sans Frontières, Geneva, Switzerland;10. Médecins Sans Frontières, Amsterdam, Netherlands;11. Médecins Sans Frontières, Sana''a, Yemen;12. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland;13. Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA;14. UNICEF, Sana''a, Yemen;15. National Reference Center for Vibrios and Cholera, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France;1. RFF-CMCC European Institute of Environmental Economics, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Italy and Università Ca'' Foscari Venezia, Italy;2. Universidad de Salamanca, Spain;3. Universidad de Córdoba, Spain;1. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, USA;2. Department of Government and Politics, Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland College Park, College Park, MD, USA;3. Department of Geography, Environment, and Society, and Minnesota Population Center, University of Minnesota, Minnesota, MN, USA;4. Mershon Center for International Security Studies, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA;1. International Security and Development Center, Auguststr. 89, 10117 Berlin, Germany;2. International Security and Development Center and Humboldt University of Berlin, Auguststr. 89, 10117 Berlin, Germany |
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| Abstract: | This paper provides a model-based assessment of local and global climate change impacts for the case of Yemen, focusing on agricultural production, household incomes and food security. Global climate change is mainly transmitted through rising world food prices. Our simulation results suggest that climate change induced price increases for food will raise agricultural GDP while decreasing real household incomes and food security. Rural non-farm households are hit hardest as they tend to be net food consumers with high food budget shares, but farm households also experience real income losses given that many of them are net buyers of food. The impacts of local climate change are less clear given the ambiguous predictions of global climate models (GCMs) with respect to future rainfall patterns in Yemen. Local climate change impacts manifest itself in long term yield changes, which differ between two alternative climate scenarios considered. Under the MIR scenario, agricultural GDP is somewhat higher than with perfect mitigation and rural incomes rise due to higher yields and lower prices for sorghum and millet. Under the CSI scenario, positive and negative yield changes cancel each other out. As a result, agricultural GDP and household incomes hardly change compared to perfect mitigation. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Agricultural productivity Growth Food security Yemen Middle East and North Africa |
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