煤炭市场供需波动与价格风险管理

大秦线的春季检修是历年上半年北方下水煤供应波动的主要因素,通过分析发现大秦线检修带来的供给波动在历年的夏季价格大跌中发挥了关键性作用。除了大秦线检修之外,需求的波动、运输计划的调整等都会带来市场的波动。在供大于求的市场环境下,价格易跌难涨,波动对于短期价格变化有重大影响。价格的下行实际上是在各种供需波动作用下,少涨多跌的动态调整过程。因此,在当前的煤炭经营管理中,应强化波动管理,最大限度地避免供需波动、平滑煤炭供应、稳定市场价格。

Supply and Demand Fluctuation and Price Risk management of Coal Market

Spring season maintenance of Da-Qin Railway Line would be a main factor of a supply fluctuation in the coal ocean shipping from North China in the first half of a year. An analysis showed that a supply fluctuation from the Da-Qin Railway Line would play a critical role in the high dropping of the summer price each year. In addition to the maintenance of Da-Qin Railway Line, a demand fluctuation, adjustment of a transportation plan and others all would cause the fluctuation of the market. Under the market environment with a supply over a demand, the price would be easy to drop and hard to rise up and the price fluctuation would have a great influence to the variation of the short term price. A price downward actually was a dynamic adjustment process with less increasing and many decreasing under a role of different supply and demand fluctuation. Therefore in the present coal operation and management, a fluctuation management should be enhanced, the supply and demand fluctuation should be maximally avoided, the coal supply should be smoothly and the market price should be stabilized.