湖北省碳排放权交易体系总量目标研究

湖北省作为我国首批开展碳排放权交易试点工作的7个省市之一,将肩负起我国中部地区的低碳示范的任务和责任。对碳排放总量目标进行预测是建立碳排放权交易体系的基础工作,是确定配额的前提条件。以2007年湖北省投入产出表为基础,运用以投入产出模型为基础的混合能源经济模型,对2013—2020年期间湖北省在不同经济发展速度和低碳技术发展模式下的能源消费总量、能源强度以及由能源消费引起的CO2排放总量和由水泥生产引起的CO2排放总量等进行了预测,以此作为湖北省碳排放权交易体系总量目标设置的参考依据,并为湖北省低碳发展提出政策建议。

Study on Total Quantity Target of Hubei Province Carbon Emissions Trading System

Hubei Province was one of seven provinces and cities firstly in China to have the trial work on the carbon emissions trading and had undertaken the task and responsibility of the low carbon demonstration in Central China Area. A prediction conducted on the total quantity target of the carbon emission was a basic work to establish the carbon emission trading system and was a premise condition to set up the quotas. Based on the Hubei Province input and output table in 2007, a mixed energy economic model with the input and output model as a basis was applied to predict the total energy consumption quantity and the energy intensity under the different economic development speed and low carbon technology development mode, the total CO2 emission quantity caused by the energy consumption and the total CO2 emission quantity caused by the cement production. The predictions could be the reference basis to set up the total quantity target of the Hubei Province carbon emission trading system and could provide the policy proposals on the low carbon development in Hubei Province.