河北省人口老龄化现状分析及发展预测

利用河北省第5次人口普查数据,编制了河北省人口简略寿命表,并在此基础上,采用人口年龄移算法构建统计模型,对2000-2050年河北省人口老龄化的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明:1)2000年河北省人口年龄锥体接近壶型,说明种群正处于衰老阶段,人口总体数量将在未来呈现下降趋势;2)2000-2050年,河北省老年人口数量将呈逐年递增态势,其中在2000年至2020年,河北省老年人口增长速度最快,为老龄化高速发展期;3)在老年人口总量增长的过程中,80岁以上高龄老年人在老年人口中的比例增加迅速,到2050年可占到老年人口的39%。因此,中高龄老年人的赡养问题将成为未来河北省所面临的主要经济和社会问题。

Analysis of current aging and prediction of aging development t rend in Hebei

The abridged life table of Hebei province was made with the 5th population data,on the basis of which in 2000-2050 aging development trend of Hebei province was predicted by using the edge-glide algorithm statistic model.It is pointed out that: 1) In 2000,the age pyramid of Hebei province is close to kettle shape,which shows the population is aging,the number of people will decline in the future.2) The number of aging people of Hebei will increase year by year in 2000-2050.While from 2000 to 2020,it could be the high-speed development period with the fastest increase of aging people.3) During the period,people over age of 80 will increase rapidly,and by 2050,it will account for 39% of the aging population.As a result,the support for the old citizens will be the major economic and social problem of Hebei province in the future.