社会资本视角下棚户区改造PPP项目风险分析

为了降低棚改PPP项目中的风险,提高社会资本参与棚改PPP项目的积极性,以社会资本方为研究视角。通过文献回顾和案例分析,总结社会资本参与棚改PPP项目面临的主要问题,筛选出社会资本参与棚改PPP项目面临的17个主要风险因素;运用DEMATEL法分析各风险因素的重要程度及相互影响关系,确定政府信用风险、相关法律法规不健全风险、市场收益不足风险、规划设计风险为关键风险因素;针对关键风险因素提出社会资本方防范措施,即多举措并举、细化合同条款、合理界定棚改PPP项目使用者付费范围、选择实力强的设计院是防范社会资本的有力措施。研究结果为分析棚改PPP项目风险提供了新思路,有助于提高社会资本参与棚改项目的积极性,所提对策对社会资本合理规避棚改PPP项目关键风险具有重要的借鉴意义。

Analysis of the risk of shantytown transformation PPP project in perspective of social capital

In order to reduce the risk in the shantytown PPP project and improve the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in the shantytown PPP project, the social capital side is researched. Through the literature review and case analysis, the main problems faced by social capital to participate in the shantytown transformation PPP project are summarized, and 17 main risk factors are filtered out. The DEMATEL method is used to analyze the importance and interaction of various risk factors, and the bad government credit, weak relevant laws and regulations, insufficient market income and poor planning and design are determined as the key risk factors. Aiming at the key factors, the social capital prevention measures are provided from four aspects of taking multiple measures simultaneously, refining contract terms, reasonably defining the shantytown transformation PPP project user''s payment range and selecting a powerful design institute. The results provide a new way of thinking for analyzing the risk of a shed-reform PPP project, and help increase the enthusiasm of social capital to participate in shed-reform projects. The proposed countermeasures are of great significance to the social capital to reasonably avoid the key risks in shed-reform PPP projects.