基于LMDI模型的CO2排放影响因素研究——以江苏省为例

本文采用Kaya及其扩展模型将CO2排放影响因素划分为产业能源强度、生活能源强度、能源结构、产业结构、人均产出、人居收入和人口总数7个方面。根据1995～2009年江苏省一、二、三产业和居民生活部门的12种能源消费数据,利用LMDI模型分解计算出7个因素的CO2排放量和贡献值。研究结果表明,1995～2009年江苏省CO2排放量总体呈上升趋势;人均产出、人居收入和人口总数对CO2排放起到正向驱动作用,产业能源强度、生活能源强度、能源结构、产业结构起到负向驱动作用,人均产出和产业能源强度分别是影响CO2排放的正向和负向主导因素。降低CO2排放量,需要通过提高产业能源强度、调整产业结构、能源结构和促进居民生活方式和消费模式的转变,要坚持计划生育的基本国策。

Influence Factor Analysis Carbon Dioxide Emission Base on LMDI Model——Taking Jiangsu Province as an Example

Influence factor and trend of dioxide emission must be made clear for saving energy,reducing emission and developing Jiangsu economy.This paper divides production energy intensity,life energy intensity,energy structure,industry structure,per capita out,per capita income and population by Kaya and its expanded model.Based on the data of three industries and twelve kinds of energy consumption of Jiangsu from 1995 to 2009,CO2 emission and contribution of seven factors are worked out.The results show that,CO2 emission continued to increase from 1995 to 2009;per capita out,per capita income and population are forward driving factors and production energy intensity,life energy intensity,energy structure,industry structure are backward driving factors;per capita out and production energy intersity are the main factors of forward and backward driving;CO2 emission can be decreased and inhibited by rncreasing production energy intensity adjusting industrial structure and energy structure,encouraging people to change their life and consumption modes.