金融集聚、空间溢出与城镇化——基于2005～2014年省级面板数据的实证研究

本文基于2005～2014年我国31个省（市、自治区）的面板数据，分别构建金融集聚指数和城镇化指数，考察金融集聚与城镇化发展的空间自相关性，并建立了空间自回归模型和空间杜宾模型，采用空间回归偏微分方法分析金融集聚对城镇化的空间溢出效应。研究表明，我国金融集聚和城镇化均呈现明显的空间自相关性，且呈增强趋势。金融集聚、金融投资比率、经济发展水平、对外开放程度对本地区及邻近地区的城镇化都存在着正向的空间溢出效应，且地理距离关联模式下溢出效应更强；而金融发展规模和政府干预程度对城镇化发展存在负向空间溢出效应。

Financial Agglomeration,Spatial Spillover Effect and Urbanization in China---Based on the Empirical Study with Provincial Panel Data from 2005 to 2014

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces , municipalities or autonomous regions in China from 2005 to 2014 , this paper constructs financial agglomeration index and urbanization index , studies the Spatial auto-correlation of financial agglomeration and urban-ization development , moreover , builds spatial auto-regression model and spatial Durbin model and analyzes spatial spillover effects of fi-nancial agglomeration on urbanization based on spatial regression model partial derivatives method . It comes to the results as follows , China’s financial agglomeration and urbanization showed significant spatial auto -correlation , and showed an increasing trend . Financial agglomeration , financial investment ratio , the level of economic development and openness both have positive spatial spillover effect on ur-banization of the region and adjacent areas , and the effect in geographical distance association mode is stronger than which in economic dis-tance association mode . However , the scale of financial development and the extent of government intervention have negative spatial spillover effect on urbanization of the region and adjacent areas .