省际OFDI、出口贸易对全要素生产率的影响——基于空间杜宾模型的实证分析

中国地域辽阔，地区差异较大，研究省际OFDI、出口贸易对全要素生产率的影响需重视空间因素的作用。本文基于2005～2014年我国28个省份的面板数据，采用空间杜宾模型，实证分析OFDI和出口贸易这两个方面对全要素生产率的影响。结果表明，省际OFDI、出口贸易和全要素生产率均表现出空间集聚特征；OFDI与全要素生产率的增长呈负相关；出口对全要素生产率有显著的正向效应，并且通过空间溢出效应显著促进邻接省份全要素生产率的提升。因此，我国需重视技术寻求型OFDI的建设，充分考虑OFDI对国内经济增长的空间溢出影响，以期达到对外投资和出口贸易双实现技术溢出效应的效果。

Influence of Inter-Province OFDI and Export Trade on Total Factor Productivity---An Analysis Based on The Spatial Panel Durbin Model

Because of China’s vast territory and regional differences , a study of the influence of inter-province OFDI and export trade on total factor productivity requires a full consideration of spatial factors . Based on the panel data of 28 provinces of China in 2005-2014 , this paper uses the spatial data model to analyze the impact of OFDI and export trade on the total factor productivity in two aspects . The results reveal that each of the provincial OFDI , export trade and total factor productivity shows an obvious spatial agglomeration feature;OFDI has negative correlation with TFP growth;exports have significant positive effect on total factor productivity , and promote the total factor productivity of adjacent provinces significantly through the spatial spillover effects . Therefore , our country should pay attention to the construction of technology-seeking OFDI , and fully consider the impact of OFDI on the spatial spillover of domestic economic growth in order to achieve the technology spillover effects of both OFDI and export trade .