环境规制对碳绩效影响的门槛效应分析

环境规制解决“温室效应”的关键在于其能否实现经济增长和碳减排之间的共赢。因此，寻求一条提升碳绩效的持续发展道路是当前政府环境规制之要务。本文从竞争均衡模型的构建深入探讨环境规制对碳绩效的作用效应，证实了环境规制与碳绩效之间呈现广义上的U型曲线关系。在此基础上，通过建立门槛面板回归模型实证检验了中国2000～2014年30个省市的环境规制对碳绩效的门槛效应，基于区域异质性假定证实了环境规制与碳绩效的双门槛效应及最优规制水平的存在，以期为地方政府环境规制的正确执行提供必要的参考依据。

The Threshold Effect of Environmental Regulation on Carbon Performance

The key to solve the “greenhouse effect” is whether the environmental regulation can realize the mutual success between economic growth and carbon reduction . Therefore , the focus of the current government environmental regulation lies in seeking for a sus-tainable path to improve carbon performance . In this paper , the effect of environmental regulation on carbon performance is discussed through the construction of competitive equilibrium model . It is confirmed that the relationship between environmental regulation and carbon performance is u-shaped curve in the broadest sense . On this basis , the panel threshold regression model is established to empirically test the threshold effects of environmental regulation on the performance of carbon in 30 provinces from 2000 to 2014 , and confirmed that the existence of the double threshold effect and the optimal regulation level of environmental regulation and carbon performance based on the re-gional heterogeneity assumption , which are aimed to provide indispensable reference frame for the government to implement the environmen-tal regulations correctly .