我国机电产品出口三元边际及其影响因素——基于“一带一路”国家的实证研究

“一带一路”建设为我国机电产品出口增长带来新机遇,为了探究我国机电产品出口增长的主要推动力,本文基于Un Comtrade数据,对我国机电产品的出口进行分解。实证分析结果表明,我国对“一带一路”沿线国家机电产品出口增长的主要推动力是数量边际,贡献率为82.45%;而价格边际与扩展边际的贡献率分别为7.00%与10.55%。我国与“一带一路”沿线国家的系列因素对机电产品出口三元边际存在显著的差异性影响,主要包括进口国的经济规模、人均收入、与我国的地理距离、高层互访、基础设施状况、我国的直接投资存量、亚投行的金融支持、地理邻近以及是否与我国签署自由贸易协定。

Export Ternary Margins and its Influential Factors of China's Mechanical and Electrical Products——Empirical Evidence from“The Belt and Road”Countries

“The Belt and Road”construction brings new opportunities for the growth of China's exports of mechanical and electrical products.In order to explore the main driving force of China's export growth of electromechanical products,this article analyzes China's export of electromechanical products based on Un Comtrade data.The empirical analysis results show that the main driving force of China's export growth of mechanical and electrical products in the countries along“the Belt and Road”is the quantity margin,with a contribution rate of 82.45%;the contribution rates of the price margin and expansion margin are 7.00%and 10.55%,respectively.A series of factors between China and countries along“the Belt and Road”have significant differences in the impact of the ternary margin of mechanical and electrical products exports,including the economic scale of the importing country,per capita income,geographical distance from China,high-level visits,infrastructure conditions,China's direct investment stock,financial support from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,geographical proximity,and whether to sign a free trade agreement with China.