区域创新对能源结构的异质性边际效应——以丝绸之路经济带地区为例

创新驱动能源结构优化是资源密集型地区实现低碳发展的重要途径。本文基于2005~2015年丝绸之路经济带省级面板数据，考察了地区创新能力对能源结构边际效应的区域差异，并进一步探讨了创新能力在优化能源结构过程中的门槛效应。研究表明：丝绸之路经济带整体能源结构较为低级，且呈现出“高→低→高”的时间变化趋势，经济带两端地区的能源结构层级高于中间地区；各地区创新能力存在较大差异，西南各地区的创新能力明显高于西北地区；区域创新在驱动能源结构升级的过程中存在明显的异质性，在一些地区甚至出现反向驱动效应；创新在驱动能源结构升级的过程中存在双重门槛，随着创新能力跨越各门槛值，其驱动能力呈现出“反向驱动→强正向驱动→弱正向驱动”的态势。本文在上述结论的基础上，给出了一些政策建议。

The Heterogenous Marginal Effect of Regional Innovation on Energy Structure ——Taking the Silk Road Economic Belt as the Example

Driving energy structure to get optimized through innovation is an important way to achieve low-carbon development for resource-intensive regions. Based on the provincial panel data of silk road economic belt during 2005~2015，this paper researches the different marginal effect on the regional energy structure form regional innovation ability，furthermore，discusses the threshold effect of regional innovation ability during optimizing the energy structure. The research shows that：the overall energy structure is low and present the “high - low - high” tendency with the change of time and the energy structure level of the ends is higher than the middle area in the silk road economic belt；there is a big difference in innovation capacity among all regions，and the capacity of innovation in southwest regions is signi?cantly higher than that of the northwest regions；regional innovation has obvious heterogeneity in the process of optimizing the energy structure，and even presents reverse effect in some areas；there are two thresholds during the innovation drives energy structure to get upgraded，as innovation ability stride across the thresholds，the driving capacity presents the“reverse drive - strong positive drive - weak positive drive”tendency．Based on the above conclusions，some suggestions are proposed．