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国际贸易与内生经济增长——基于 DGE 理论分析与实证检验
引用本文:张萌.国际贸易与内生经济增长——基于 DGE 理论分析与实证检验[J].工业技术经济,2017,36(9):24-31.
作者姓名:张萌
作者单位:1 西安交通大学经济与金融学院,西安 710061
2 陕西学前师范学院数学系,西安 710100
基金项目:国家社会科学基金重大项目"民间资本供求、风险防范及其健康发展研究"
摘    要:本文基于开放条件下的内生经济增长理论,构建居民、贸易与非贸易企业三部门的动态一般均衡理论分析框架,演绎了出口贸易、消费品与中间产品进口贸易以及加工贸易对经济增长的效应及其内生作用机理,并采用动态面板数据模型GMM估计方法予以实证检验。研究发现,消费品进口贸易对经济增长具有相同单位的边际制约效应;出口贸易通过直接与间接拉动效应以及收入效应促进经济增长,中间产品进口贸易与加工贸易通过直接与间接推动效应以及收入效应促进经济增长;另外,出口贸易与加工贸易促进经济增长还存在“乘数”现象。本文的发现对于我国经济发展“新常态”背景下的贸易政策改革与创新具有启示意义。

关 键 词:国际贸易  内生经济增长  动态一般均衡  GMM  模型稳态  复合型贸易模式  

International Trade and Endogenous Growth——Based on DGE Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test
Zhang Meng.International Trade and Endogenous Growth——Based on DGE Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Test[J].Industrial Technology & Economy,2017,36(9):24-31.
Authors:Zhang Meng
Institution:1 School of Economics and Finance,Xi’an Jiaotong University,Xi’an  710061,China
2 Department of Mathematics of Shaanxi Xueqian Normal University,Xi’an  710100,China
Abstract:A dynamic general equilibrium theory analysis framework is built including three residents,trade and non-trade enterprises,based on endogenous growth theory under the open economy conditions. We deduce the effects and mechanisms of export,consumer goods and intermediate products import trade,processing trade on growth,it is empirically tested by dynamic panel data model and GMM estimation method. The results show consumer goods import trade has an equal marginal restriction effect on growth,export trade promote economic growth through direct and indirect pull effect and income effect,intermediate products import and processing trade promote economic growth through direct and indirect push effect and income effect,in addition,there is a“multiplier”phenomenon in the export and processing trade to promote growth. It is enlightenment for trade policy reform and innovation under the “new normal” of China’s economic growth.
Keywords:   international trade  endogenous growth  dynamic general equilibrium  GMM  the steady-state model  complex teade patterns  
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