京津冀城市群耦合协调发展及时空演化研究

本文通过构建城市系统指标体系，运用熵权赋值法和耦合协调度模型，测度和分析了2005~2015 年京津冀城市群经济--科技--人口--土地的综合发展水平、协调关系及演化特征。研究表明，从时序看，京津冀城市群经济、科技、人口与土地基本处于低级耦合协调状态，人口发展和土地扩张仍是经济发展的主导模式，而科技系统发展持续低迷，创新驱动格局尚未形成。从空间看，京津冀各城市耦合协调水平整体提升，逐渐形成以北京、天津为中心，沿京津发展轴、京保石发展轴蔓延的协调发展格局，而城市各系统协调发展呈现空间分异特征，“协调高地”与“协调失灵”局面并存。因此，应大力实施创新驱动战略，加快形成人口多中心分布格局，强化土地利用协调管理，促进区域经济、科技、人口、土地协调发展。

The Research of Coupling Coordination and Spatio-temporal Evolution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

This paper constructs index system of city system, which uses the entropy weight method and the coupling coordination degree model, then measuring the comprehensive development level, coordinating relations and evolutionary characteristics of the system of economics - science and technology - population – land in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration during 2005~2015. The research shows that, from the aspect of time, the system is at the lower coupling state, and the population development and land expansion dominating the economic development, science and technology system development sustaining downturn, innovation driven development pattern not yet formed. From the aspect of space, the overall coupling coordination level of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is enhanced, and the development pattern of Beijing City and Tianjin City as the center, and Beijing-Tianjin, Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang as the axis gradually formed. Between each city coordinated development system has spatial characteristics, “coordination heights” and “coordination failure” coexisting. Therefore, this paper suggests that we should vigorously implement the innovation driven strategy, speed up the formation of regional population distribution pattern, strengthen the coordinated management of land use to promote the coordinated development of the city system.